FX markets in for bumpy trip over subsequent three months

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FILE PHOTO: Russian Rouble and U.S. Greenback banknotes are seen on this illustration taken, February 24, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

BENGALURU/JOHANNESBURG, March 4 (Reuters) – Currencies are in for a bumpy trip with already heightened volatility anticipated to extend over the following three months within the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in keeping with a Reuters ballot of analysts who forecast extra ache for the battered rouble.

Volatility spiked on Wednesday to ranges not seen for the reason that begin of the COVID-19 pandemic, in keeping with Deutsche Financial institution .DBCVIX.

That pattern is predicted to proceed within the close to time period, with over 90% of respondents to an extra query within the Feb. 28-March 3 ballot of forex strategists anticipating volatility to both improve or improve considerably within the coming three months.

“Will probably be the next volatility interval simply because the problems beneath dialogue haven’t been beneath dialogue in a era and in some locations in a lifetime,” mentioned Steve Englander, head of G10 FX technique at Customary Chartered.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, cash has been siphoned away from riskier property into safer havens, together with the greenback, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, in addition to currencies linked to commodity markets.

Whereas the yen and franc had been anticipated to be in demand within the quick time period they had been forecast to weaken marginally towards the dollar over the 12-month horizon as neither forex carries an rate of interest edge.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is about to start elevating charges at its assembly this month from near-zero, delivering a minimum of 125 foundation factors of tightening by year-end, in keeping with a separate Reuters ballot. ECILT/USFEDWATCH

“The standard protected havens…are doing OK however not good when beneath tensions, and underperforming badly when tensions ease as a result of, in a means, they don’t have anything to supply. They don’t have any charges,” mentioned Englander.


Median forecasts of over 60 respondents confirmed little change in analysts’ expectations in contrast with the February ballot, suggesting many forecasters haven’t but labored out the broader FX market implications of armed battle in Europe.

“Now we have a really, very wide selection of geopolitical outcomes right here, which the market isn’t pricing for appropriately,” mentioned Michael Each, world strategist at Rabobank.

“The dangers in play right here within the background transcend something to do with the place the euro/greenback is buying and selling.”

To date, analysts count on the euro EUR=, which hit a 21-month low on Wednesday, to recoup its 2.5% losses for the 12 months and achieve greater than 1.0% over the following 12 months.

The yen JPY= and the franc CHF= are additionally forecast to commerce barely decrease in a 12 months, and commodity currencies to outshine them.

The Aussie greenback AUD= and Kiwi greenback NZD= are anticipated to achieve over 2.3% and 6.0%, respectively, and the Canadian greenback CAD= over 2.5%.

The Russian rouble hit a file low on Thursday, shedding over a 3rd of its worth this 12 months, as stinging Western sanctions pummeled Russia’s monetary system. Learn full story

Requested how low the rouble would fall to this month, 11 strategists returned a median of 125/$. Forecasts ranged from 120-150/$.

Russia’s neighbour Turkey, the place President Tayyip Erdogan has been urging the central financial institution to chop rates of interest to combat inflation now operating at 54%, has been battered by a forex disaster that noticed the lira lose almost half its worth final 12 months.

The lira TRY= was forecast to plunge one other 20% within the subsequent 12 months.

(For different tales from the March Reuters international trade ballot: Learn full story)



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