Rome – The benchmark for world meals commodity costs declined for the seventh consecutive month in February, as decrease worldwide quotations for all main cereals greater than offset rising costs of sugar and meat, the Meals and Agriculture Group of the United Nations (FAO) reported Friday.
The FAO Meals Worth Index, which tracks month-to-month adjustments within the worldwide costs of a set of globally-traded meals commodities, averaged 117.3 factors in February, down 0.7 p.c from January and 10.5 p.c from the identical month a 12 months in the past.
The FAO Cereal Worth Index decreased by 5.0 p.c in February to succeed in a stage 22.4 p.c under that of February 2023. Maize export costs dropped probably the most amid expectations of enormous harvests in South America and aggressive costs supplied by Ukraine, whereas worldwide wheat costs declined largely as a consequence of a powerful export tempo from the Russian Federation. Worldwide rice costs additionally declined, by 1.6 p.c in February.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Worth Index decreased by 1.3 p.c from January to face 11 p.c under its February 2023 worth. Worldwide soyoil costs dropped markedly, underpinned by prospects of plentiful soybean outputs in South America, whereas ample international export availabilities of sunflower and rapeseed oils pushed their costs down. World palm oil costs rose marginally in February as a consequence of seasonally decrease manufacturing.
The FAO Sugar Worth Index, against this, rose 3.2 p.c in February. The rise mirrored persistent considerations over Brazil’s upcoming output after a protracted interval of below-average rainfall in addition to forecast manufacturing declines in Thailand and India, two main exporting international locations.
The FAO Meat Worth Index rose by 1.8 p.c from January, with poultry meat quotations rising probably the most, adopted by these for bovine meat, impacted by heavy rains disrupting cattle transportation in Australia. Pig meat costs additionally rose barely as a consequence of greater demand from China and a decent provide scenario in Western Europe. Worldwide ovine meat costs declined due partially to record-breaking manufacturing following flock rebuilding in Australia.
The FAO Dairy Worth Index elevated by 1.1 p.c, led by greater import demand from Asian consumers for butter. Costs of milk powders and cheese additionally rose marginally.
Extra particulars can be found right here.
New forecasts for international cereals
FAO additionally launched a brand new Cereal Provide and Demand Temporary, barely elevating its forecast for the world whole cereal manufacturing in 2023 to 2 840 million tonnes and providing plenty of new projections.
World cereal utilization in 2023/24 is now forecast at 2 823 million tonnes, a rise of 1.1 p.c from the earlier 12 months due largely to elevated use of maize and wheat for livestock feed. World cereal shares are anticipated to extend, due solely to coarse grains, with the worldwide cereal stocks-to-use ratio foreseen ending the 12 months at a “snug” 31.1 p.c stage, up from 30.9 p.c. World commerce in cereals is predicted to extend by 1.3 p.c from the earlier 12 months, buoyed by an improved outlook for maize exports by Ukraine and stronger demand from China.
FAO additionally launched its preliminary forecast for international wheat manufacturing in 2024, pegging it at 797 million tonnes, a 1.0 p.c improve from 2023. Decrease wheat costs have elicited a 6 p.c year-on-year decline in winter wheat planting in the USA of America, the place outputs might nonetheless rise as a consequence of sturdy yield prospects. Beneficial climate circumstances are additionally propping up expectations of elevated 2024 wheat manufacturing within the Russian Federation, an export powerhouse, in addition to above-average outputs in China, India and Pakistan.
Extra particulars can be found right here.
Conflicts push acute meals insecurity greater
Conflicts and hostile climate are exacerbating starvation within the 45 international locations world wide assessed to wish exterior help for meals, in line with the most recent Crop Prospects and Meals State of affairs report, a triannual publication by FAO’s World Data and Early Warning System (GIEWS) additionally revealed as we speak.
“Conflicts in Close to East Asia and in West and East Africa are driving alarmingly excessive ranges of probably the most extreme part of acute meals insecurity,” the report stated, with very excessive considerations for the scenario of your entire inhabitants of the Gaza Strip in Palestine. Widespread dry climate circumstances are anticipated to worsen meals insecurity in Southern Africa.
Though combination cereal manufacturing is anticipated to develop modestly in 2024 among the many 44 Low-Revenue Meals Deficit Nations, low outputs gathered in 2023 and tightening inventories have pushed up import wants for a number of sub-Saharan international locations.
Harvesting of 2024 cereal crops will start in April in Southern Africa, the place widespread and extended rainfall deficits related to the El Niño climate phenomenon have sharply curtailed manufacturing prospects. Key cropping zones in Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe acquired lower than 80 p.c of common rainfall since final November, pointing to an elevated want for cereal imports by these international locations within the forthcoming 2024/2025 advertising and marketing 12 months.
